Thursday, March 7, 2019

Start with why by Simon Sinek



When i read a self-development book, i don't rush myself to implement everything written in here. First i need to believe it and agree with ideas and opinions sharing with me by writer, filter it through my own viewpoint. Then reflect on my situation and environment, so many other aspects that made writer think different from me. After that, maybe i would start considering what could be benefit out of the implementation of some of the ideas. In end, we should remind ourselves that this book is not a holy bible written by God that we have follow the every step of it, it is another human being's idea and opinion, creation. So anyway, let's start with this book.  Hmmm This book reminded me of many things i already know but forgot about that for a while. Maybe you could also find answer in it or remind yourself that you might have forgotten for a while.
Book itself gives a kind of advice for not only entrepreneur, but also people those who takes so much time by doubting in decision making process, and it powerfully presses on the point of basis of a successful organization.
Overall, the book gives you a clear advice to find your "why."
Why-how-what
Living with a reason,
Working for meaning,
Worshiping with a right method,
Cooperating with a right people...LET'S BE HONEST WITH OURSELVES. you know and feel that every book which is written by a successful person doesn't give a right advice to you. Advice just doesn't fit my culture, value, my country or my environment at all. Despite this as we filter it through our mindset, we can make benefit out of it.
A book itself is a great source of finding amateur methods for marketer in my opinion. Interestingly a book goes against simple rule of marketing which is to make marketing research before producing products or make sales. It advises you to stick with your "why" continouosly in order to reach the wanted result. Marketing is all about influencing decision making through changing behavior. But of course, the book offers useful advice and ideas not only in marketing field, but also for personal life or organizational life generally.
How to produce a lasting success? 
 It says that there only 2 possible ways to change human's behavior which are either to manipulate it or to inspire it. How does person get inspired ? How do you get inspired? 
1.    ... If you want to stay inspired through whole way, it is important to stick with what you strongly believe. Don't let this belief in values of yours to be shaken under affect of others' opinion, money and fame. If you want to inspire others, always communicate your why first.
2.     ...Excited employees are the best resource for any business.When i go to work every morning, do i feel like a part of organization which are pursuing after a great change, creating a positive difference in Mongolia's society, contribution to socia-economy ? Or am i just going to work as thinking of it as instrument to earn money ? if it is made at same time, how great it would be...But it doesn't always. Sometimes, situation makes you choose between them. But strongly believing in long term result for yourself when you can't see or feel it is  a kind of challenging for my patience and ambition...but there is always way to turn things around advantageously for yourself if you try hard i guess. 
3
...People don't buy your "how", they buy your "why." When  you try to find your why, don't be too influenced by peer pressure that arises question that , manipulation such as money, appraisal of others and so on. Hmmm, let me think for a moment. To be true, there are no one who doesn't want to earn good with what they can do using their how. Maybe after earning so good for a long term, the one might find this money value a kind of depreciating and might look for another values such feeling of belonging or need of being loved by everyone which is fame. Hey doesn't it remind you " Maslow's hierarchy of needs"?
Of course, i want to find my "why" at the beginning of entire road which might end up in the dead end street or before i get lost or i regret for my entire existence through the road. i don't want to be the one when i end up in the dead end street in my career or my life when i reached to the middle aged woman. While i am young, i want to start it right. That's why i am on the journey of finding my why even before my needs are meet in accordance with Maslow's hierarchy of needs. I believe that it is to be quite true in one's life. But you see that journey to finding your "why" is  a high privilege and sometimes situation and condition don't allow you to wander around for too long. 

...When you're truly trust and believe in something, you can communicate about it confidently and in an inspiring way that bears a  leader naturally. 

Why: Very few people or companies can clearly articulate why they do what they do. This isn’t about running a profitable company—that’s a result. Why is all about your purpose. Why does your company exist? Why do you get out of bed in the morning? And why should anyone care?

How: Some people and companies know how they do what they do. Whether you call them a ‘’differentiating value proposition’’ or a ‘’unique selling proposition,’’ HOWs are often given to explain how something is different or better.

What: Every single company on the planet knows what they do. This is true no matter how big or small the company is, or no matter what industry they belong to. Everyone can easily describe the products or services their company sells or the job function they have within the company.
When we start with “Why”, we go from the inside out of the circle. “Why” is the reason to buy and the “Whats” merely represent the tangible products as a proof of that belief. “Whats” are the reasons we can point to rationalize why we so much like a company over another.

 Mmm i agree with that having a clear vision and goal in the organization makes it successful. Having a clear vision and concrete "why" to start any important decision in life or work or a project in one's life helps that person to accomplish it persistently till the end and finish it successfully. Goals that based on the values such as " being to true to yourself", "honesty", "loyalty", "integration", "authenticity that actions and words overlap in a real life", " being pride in what you are doing", " being proud in front of your loved ones", " being competent enough to take care of yourself"," helping other people", " feeling good by helping and contributing to the society", " to be part of creating something great and enormous", "being independent", " having freedom", " being part of  a great and good goal of the organization, feeling like belonging to there, being proud in your work"...
whatever the value, goals and vision should be based on that.
Goals and vision should be pursued with those who're loyal and seeing your "why."
Once you see the "why", i am sure that "how" is not big problem at all.


Sinek talks about companies which have lost sight of their original “Why.” Take the example of Volkswagen and Walmart. Volkswagen literally means “car of the people” and its image has always been that of reliable, affordable cars for everyone. The original VW Beetle was a cheerful symbol of freedom and a simple, carefree life. So when they introduced the super-expensive, $70,000 VW Phaeton, that flew against their own “Why” and sold nothing.
Walmart was a more serious case. Walmart was started by Sam Walton with the idea of helping people and communities by providing products at low prices. However, after the death of its founders, the company focused only on low prices, forgetting about helping people and the communities they entered. It ended up becoming a cutthroat business towards its suppliers, employees and the communities it was a part of. Walmart got into serious trouble when it lost its initial “Why.”
Sinek says that gaining a clarity of “Why” is not the hardest part. The hardest part is the discipline to trust one’s gut over outside advice and to stay true to your cause or belief.
An Idea. That’s probably where every company starts. At the beginning, ideas are
fueled by passion. That very compelling emotion that sometimes causes us to do irrational things.
When you’re up against the world, competing with everyone else, no one wants to help you. But when you compete against yourself, everyone wants to help you.
Now let’s think about how we do business. We’re always competing against someone else. Better quality. More features. Better service. We’re always comparing ourselves to the competition. And no one wants to help us.
What if we showed up to work every single day to be better than ourselves? For no better reason than to want to leave the organization in a better state than we found it?
All organizations start with “Why”, but only the great ones keep their “Why” clear year after year. Those who forget “Why” they were founded show up to the race every day to outdo someone else instead of outdoing themselves.
You are your best competition.
But for passion to thrive and survive, it also needs structures and “Hows.” Most companies fail because both “Hows” and “Whys” need each other.















Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Номын товч тэмдэглэл- Dear John

Энэ жилээс би өөртөө ганц хоёр зорилт тавьсан. Тэр нь
-уншсан ном болгоныхоо товч тэмдэглэлийг блогтоо англиар оруулах
-эдийн засагт болж байгаа бүхний талаар өөрийн санаа бодлыг блогтоо англи/монголоор бичиж оруулах
I always admire people who found their goal of life at very early age and already figured out what to do with life. The reason why i am telling this is because of the main role of the book -Savannah.
Savannah has been inspired by Tim who's neighbor of hers and decided to major in the special education which is nursing people with aspherge's syndrom and autism. Tim's brother has autism and he never fails to take care of his sick brother or never lose love and patience for her brother. Savannah wanted to help that kind of people to adjust in society by becoming nurse who finds life's joy in assisting other people and in contributing to the society by giving hand directly to people who's in need of her assistance. Sometimes this type of book makes me think that how different their society and the society i am living in Mongolia. Again i try hard not to fall into the negative thought of how sometimes society can be rotten with corruption and influential people that reached to the level that even normal and nice people have to be careful and suspicious in taking hand from others and assisting others.
Savannah was a normal girl who's only 21 years old, already started pursuing her goals through hard work and good heart. In accordance with flow of the book, everything related to her and her every action seem to flow into one direction which is toward to her goal. How nice it is ! Graduating from the major she wanted, getting job as university assistant, working on her thesis, volunteering in the work which can help other disabled people and make her feel appreciated and respected for what she did are her value as much as love she found in life.
I think her value lies under values which aren't measured by money. When people find love in life, they fill life with it and it starts replacing all the other important values in life. But unfortunately, life is not pink and it can't be 100% pink world. Your career, friends, family, society, interest, other values that you can't bear to lose are significant as much as love we always fantasize through many books, movies, tales and stories through history.
On the other hand, John who was once rebel teenager because of his dad with aspherger syndrom. He lacks family love and tries to fill emptiness with other fun stuffs during the time he was in high school. Though he understands temporary fun and friends can't be longlasting fullfillment in his heart, he can't find better things to do in life and hasn't found his life goal yet. But after he joined the army, he changed. He'd become more disciplined and army gave him time to meditate on his last years of his teenage time. While he was in the army, he tried to build his value in life, not following others under peer pressure, society pressure.
He begins understanding the value of family and his dad did his best to bring him up even though his dad could't give him what he desired. His family situation so much reminded  me of how my mom and i interacted with each other. One sentence would fit into our situation that so close, yet so far. Yes, how hard it is to live 2 people together under one roof who have totally different viewpoint of life and habit. I was rebel too when i was teenager. Because of this confrontation of ideas, we used to exchange words barely on daily basis. But of course, i wouldn't deny how much i love my mom. Just John's situation reminded me of my childhood and my background. Anyway, back to the book...
They met in middle of life one fine summer day. John was hungry for family love and their romance started. But wait, i am not really good writer to define thing which has been already described in the book which is love. But main lesson i learnt from the book is that when love happens, it might come to you only once in lifetime. Other versions of love could be just x copy of what you felt at the first time. Love can come in many forms. For example : When Savannah fell in love with Tim, it was very different from how she loved John... sad story. Oh wait, why does it sound so academic and i am like writing thesis about love when i just start talking about love haha hmmm it's strange... it sounds too academic though. Savannah and John's roads crossed in the middle of life through love. But because John had to carry on with his army mission and Savannah had to carry on with her dream job and passion. They were slowly gotten distancing from each other since distance makes it possible to forget about beautiful memories... But i would be feeling very aspired if Savannah could have waited for John's return from army. Is 2 years too long ? i wouldn't consider it too long and i would be loyal till the end. But anyway, i am not whom fell in love with John, it is Savannah....kkk

Thursday, January 3, 2019

Ханш


Ханшийг тодорхойлоход макро эдийн засгийн суурь нөхцөлд нөлөөлөгч гол зохицуулагч хүчин зүйл болох мөнгөний бодлого болон төсвийн бодлогын нөлөөллийг анхаарахгүй өнгөрөөхийн аргагүй юм. Мөн макро эдийн засгийн үзүүлэлтүүдэд шууд нөлөө үзүүлж чадахуйц ОУВС-ын 3 жилийн 5.5 тэрбум ам. долларын санхүүжилт гэх мэт хөтөлбөрийн хүрээнд үүсч болох сөрөг үр дагавараас урьдчилан сэргийлэх зорилготойгоор дээрх бодлогууд нь өөрчлөгдөн хэрэгжиж байдаг. Үүнд жишээ болгон 2016 оны нөхцөл байдлыг авч үзвэл эдийн засгийн нөхцөл байдал дифляцитай, үүнийг дагаад ажилгүйдэл өндөр түвшинд, өрийн дарамт өндөр, банк санхүүгийн байгууллагуудын зээлжих зэрэглэл буурсан, гадны хөрөнгө оруулагчдын итгэл буурсан гэх зэрэг шалтгаанаар 2016 он эдийн засгийн уналтад орсон жил байсан бөгөөд засгийн газар үүний хариу арга хэмжээ болгож орлогын албан татварыг аажмаар өсгөх, төсвийн зардлаа танах замаар төсвийн тэлэх бодлого болон Монголбанк нь бодлогын хүүгээр дамжуулан 2016 оны 5 сараас мөнгөний тэлэх бодлогыг барихыг хичээж байсан, эдийн засгийн зогсинги байдлын эсрэг хариу арга хэмжээ болох гадаад өрийн аргыг давхар сонгон хэрэгжүүлэх шийдвэр гарч 2016 оноос хэлэлцэж эхэлсэн ОУВС-ын санхүүжилтэд 2017 оны 5 сараас эхлэн хамрагдаж чадсан нь Монголын банк санхүүгийн системийг тогтворжуулах, эдийн засгийг дунд хугацаанд сэргээж чадна гэсэн эерэг хүлээлтийг үүсгэж байсан юм. /2017 оны 2-р улирлын байдлаар ДНБ нь ойролцоогоор 7,240 тэрбум ам. доллар ба ОУВС-ийн санхүүжилтийн хэмжээ нь ДНБ-ны 76%-д хүрэхүйц өндөр дүнтэй байгаа юм./ 2016 оны 4-р улирлаас бодлогын нөлөөллөөр аажмаар сэргэж эхэлсэн ДНБ болон 2016 онд үүссэн ОУВС-ийн санхүүжилтийн хүлээлттэй зэрэгцэн  их хэмжээний ам. долларын урсгал орж ирвэл долларын эсрэг төгрөгийн ханш суларсан тохиолдолд өрийн дарамтыг ихэсгэх, эдийн засгийн өсөлт дунд болон урт хугацаанд буурах сөрөг нөлөөг үзүүлэхээс гадна их хэмжээний мөнгөн урсгал нь инфляцийг өсгөнө гэсэн хүлээлт, таамаглалын дагуу Монголбанк мөнгөний тэлэх бодлогоо аажмаар өөрчилж бодлогын хүүг 2016 оны 8 сард 15% болгон хатуу бодлого хэрэгжүүлж эхэлсэн. Монгол банкны бодлогын хүү өндөр байх нь хэрэглээний зардлаар дамжин инфляцийг хянах, инфляцийг хянаснаар ханшийн савалгаанд үзүүлэх нөлөөллийг бууруулах хэдий ч манай орон шиг арилжааны банкууд нь санхүүгийн зах зээлийн уур амьсгалыг тодорхойлдог жижиг зах зээлд бодлогын хүү өсөх нь банк санхүүгийн байгууллагуудын санхүүжилтийн өртөгийг өндөрсгөж, мөнгөний нийлүүлэлтийг хязгаарладаг ба эрсдэл өндөртэй ААН, компаниудыг хувьд эрсдэлийн өндөр прэмиумын нөлөөгөөр өндөр зээлийн хүүгээр санхүүжих сонголт хийхээс аргагүй байдалд хүргэн чанаргүй зээлийн хэмжээг нэмэгдүүлэх, цаашид зах зээлээс шахагдан гарах нөхцөлийг үүсгэдэг. Энэ нь шууд бус замаар экспортыг бууруулах нөлөө бий болгож гадны зах зээлд төгрөгийн эрэлт буурснаар ханш сулрах нөлөөг эргэн үзүүлэх аюултай юм.         
1.                   Монголбанкны бодлогын хүү- Бодлогын хүүг өсгөхөд тухайн орны валютын ханш чангарч байдаг. Гэхдээ энэ нь ихэнхидээ бодлогын хүүг өсгөх тухай хэвлэл мэдээллийн хэрэгслээр удаа дараа мэдэгдэж эдийн засагт хүлээлт үүсгэсэн нөхцөлд ийнхүү шууд хамааралтайгаар өөрчлөгдөх боломжтой. Хөрөнгө оруулагч, хадгаламж эзэмшигчдийн хувьд өндөр өгөөжийг сонирхох нь ойлгомжтой ба Монгол шиг хөгжиж буй орнуудын хувьд гадаад худалдааны тэнцэл нь дангаараа төгрөгийн эрэлтийг нэмэгдүүлэх, долларын нийлүүлэлтийг нэмэгдүүлэхэд хангалтгүй учраас гадаад валютын урсгалыг нэмэгдүүлэх нэг арга нь бодлогын хүүг нэмэгдүүлэх юм. 2018 оны 12-р сард АНУ нь бодлогын хүүгээ 2.25-аас 2.5 болгож өсгөсөн нь хөгжиж буй орнуудын хөрөнгө оруулалтын орох урсгал болоод гадаад худалдаанд сөргөөр нөлөөлөх боломжтой гэх хүлээлтийг үүсгээд байгаа ба Монголбанк нь үүний хариу арга хэмжээ болгон төгрөгийн ханшийн савалгаанаас хамгаалах үүднээс бодлогын хүүг 1%аар нэмэгдүүлэх шийдвэрийг 11 сард гаргасан. Гэхдээ энэ нь дан ганцаараа төгрөгийн ханшийг  тодорхойлогч хүчин зүйл болж чадахгүй бөгөөд худалдан авах чадвар, Монголбанкны гадаад валютын нөөц, гадаад худалдаа, хөрөнгө оруулалт, төсөв зэрэг хүчин зүйлсийг давхар авч үзэх шаардлагатай.
Монголбанкны гадаад валютын нөөц болон төгрөгийн ханшийн хооронд эерэг хамаарал байдаг гэж хэлж болно. Өөрөөр хэлбэл Монголбанкнаас гадаад валютаар дамжуулан зохицуулалт хийж байгаа бол валютын нөөц өсөх тусам төгрөг чангарна гэсэн үг юм.
2.                   Гадаад худалдааны тэнцэл-/X-M/ товчхондоо бусад бүх хүчин зүйлс тогтмол байх үед экспортын хэмжээ нь импортын хэмжээнээс их байгаа нөхцөлд монголын зах зээлд дэх төгрөгийн эрэлт нь нийлүүлэлтээсээ өндөр байх нөхцөлийг бүрдүүлэхэд нөлөөлнө. Энэ нь долларын эсрэг төгрөгийн ханшийг чангатгах шалтгаан юм. 2015 онд экспортын бүтээгдэхүүний 78,8% нь, 2016 онд 70.9%, 2017 онд 79.6% , 2018 онд 94,9% нь эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүн байгаа ба эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүнд үнийн дүнгээр хамгийн өндөр жин эзэлж байгаа бүтээгдэхүүнүүд нь зэсийн баяжмал, нүүрс, боловсруулсан болон хагас боловсруулаагүй алт байна. Экспортлож байгаа улс орнуудын хувьд үнийн дүнгээр хамгийн өндөр нь БНХАУ байна. Энэ нь доллартай харьцах төгрөгийн ханшийн өөрчлөлт нь БНХАУ-руу гаргаж байгаа эрдэс баялагийн хэмжээ болоод БНХАУ-д гарч байгаа алт, зэс, нүүрсний үнийн өөрчлөлтөөс, БНХАУ-ын гадаад худалдааны квот болон татвараас ямар их хамааралтай болохыг харуулж байна. Импортоор оруулж ирдэг бараа, бүтээгдэхүүний 66.8%-ийг эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүн /дизель түлш, автобензин/, автомашин, машин механизм, тоног төхөөрөмж, цахилгаан хэрэгсэл эзэлж байгаа бөгөөд эдгээр бүтээгдэхүүнүүдийн 90-100%-ийг БНХАУ болон ОХУ-аас оруулж ирж байна. ДНБ 2016 оны 4 улирлаас эхлэн сэргэж 2017 онд ДНБ-ний өсөлт 5.3-д хүрсэн бол 2018 оны 1-р улирлын байдлаар ДНБ-ний өсөлт 6.4% хүрсэн байна. Эдийн засаг сэргэхийн хирээр экспорт болон импортын аль аль нь өссөн дүнтэй трэндийг харуулж байна. Гэсэн хэдий ч 2018 оны 11-р сарын байдлаар гадаад худалдааны тэнцэл 1,1 тэрбум төгрөгийн ашигтай байгаа нь өмнөх оны мөн үеээс 672 сая ам. доллараас буурсан үзүүлэлт юм. Экспортод эзлэх нүүрсний хувь хэмжээ үнэ болон хэмжээнээс хамааран 40%-д хүрч, экспортыг 2018 оны 11-р сарын байдлаар өмнөх оны мөн үетэй харьцуулахад 794,2 сая ам. доллараар өсөхөд нөлөөлсөн хэдий ч импорт нь 2018 оны 11-р сарын байдлаар өмнөх оны мөн үетэй харьцуулахад 1.5 ам долларын өсөлттэй гарсан байна. Импортын өсөлтийн гол шалтгаан нь эдийн засгийн сэргэлтийн үеийн үр дагавар болох машин, механизм, тоног төхөөрөмжийн импортын өсөлт болон тэдгээрийн сэлбэг хэрэгслийн импортын өсөлт зэргээс голлон шалтгаалсан байна. Өөрөөр хэлбэл 2018 оны 11 сарын байдлыг өмнөх оны мөн үетэй харьцуулахад импортын өсөлт экспортын өсөлтөөс өндөр буюу гарч байгаа  долларын урсгал нь орж ирж байгаа долларын урсгалаас өндөр байгаа учраас долларын эрэлт өндөр байгаа нь долларын эсрэг төгрөгийн ханш сулрахад нөлөө үзүүлж байна. /2017 оны 11 сар USD/MNT -2448.86 байсан бол 2018 оны 11 сард USD/MNT- 2581.88/
Гэсэн хэдий ч 2014-2016 ханшийн хэлбэлзэлийг ажиглахад төгрөгийн доллартай харьцах ханш чанга харин нөгөө талд гадаад худалдаа, улсын төсөв алдагдалтай хөрөнгө оруулалт буурсан байх үед яагаад ийм дээрх тодорхойлолтоос эсрэг үр харуулж байсан нь Монголбанкны гадаад валютын интервенци хийсэнтэй шууд холбоотой. 2016 оны 3-р улирлаас Монгол банк нь интервенцээ бууруулснаар төгрөгийн ханш суларч эхэлсэн байна. /
Гадаад худалдааны тэнцлийн хүрээнд манай улсын голлох экспортлогч болон импортлагч орон болох БНХАУ болон ОХУ-ын АНУ-тай хийх худалдааны хэлцлүүд, БНХАУ-ын худалдааны бодлого болон нүүрс, алт, зэсийн баяжмалын эрэлт, нийлүүлэлт, эдгээр эрдэс баялагийн үнийн өөрчлөлт, шатахууны үнэ зэрэг нь манай гадаад худалдааны тэнцэлд ихээхэн нөлөөтэй. Энэ нь эргээд долларын /төгрөгийн / эрэлт, нийлүүлэлтийг тодорхойлогч хүчин зүйлс болж, ханшийг тодорхойлж байдаг.
3.Төлбөрийн тэнцэл  - /энэ нь дотроо худалдаа, үйлчилгээ, хөрөнгө, санхүүгийн орж, гарч байгаа долларын урсгалыг багтаана. Урсгал данс, хөрөнгийн данс, санхүүгийн дансны тэнцэлийн нийлбэр нь сөрөг утгатай байвал долларын эрэлт нь нийлүүлэлтээс өндөр байгааг илтгэх ба дотоод зах зээлд төгрөгийн эсрэг долларын ханш чангарах буюу төгрөгийн ханш сулрах шалтгаан болно. / 2018 оны 9 дүгээр сарын байдлаар төлбөрийн тэнцэл ба хөрөнгийн дансны тэнцэл нь 1.1 тэрбум ам. долларын алдагдалтай гарсан байна. /төгрөгийн ханш суларсаар байгаа/ Энэ нь өмнөх оны мөн үетэй харьцуулахад 600.5 ам доллараар өссөн үзүүлэлт юм.
Үүнд жишээ болгон гадаадын шууд хөрөнгө оруулалт болон ханш хоорондын хамаарлыг авч үзье.  2016 оны 3-р улирлаас өсөж эхэлсэн гадаадын шууд хөрөнгө оруулалт нь 323 сая ам доллараас 2016 оны 4-р улирал гэхэд 447 сая ам доллар хүрсэн нь, мөн 2017 оны 2, 3 улиралд гадаад шууд хөрөнгө оруулалтийн өмнөх оны мөн үетэй харьцуулсан дүнгээр илт өссөн нь  2016 оны турш тасралтгүй суларсан долларын эсрэг төгрөгийн ханшид нөлөө үзүүлж 2017 оны эхний 6 сард төгрөгийн ханш чангарсан үзүүлэлттэй байсан.
It is impossible to define exchange rate without knowing fiscal and monetary policy impact on the major macroeconomic indicators of country which are main regulator powers in economy. Besides, those policies are adjusted and executed in accordance with prevention from major programs’ possible negative effect on economy such as IMF’s 3 years length program with USD 5.5 billion fund.
We can look at the 2016 FY’s situation as an example of policy adjustment. Deflation, unemployment, debt pressure, downgraded credit rating, depreciated investors’ trust caused 2016 year economic downturn. Reaction of the government to the situation was to apply expansionary fiscal policy by increasing income tax rate and decreasing expenditure. Starting from the May, 2016, Bank of Mongolia started expansionary monetary policy through policy interest rate. Besides that, Government has chosen the method of foreign debt as countermeasure against recession. While we started discussing about the IMF’s program starting from 2016, finally we got the IMF’s financing starting from May 2017 which created a positive expectation in the economy on economic stabilization and expansion in mid-term.  / As 2nd quarter of 2017, GDP was USD 7.240 billion and IMF’s fund weighs almost 76% of it which shows that it was an enough huge amount to have impact on economy/
Under the effect of fiscal and monetary policies, starting from 4th quarter of 2016, GDP started increasing and expectation IMF along with a high amount of foreign currency inflow created certain fear that in case of the MNT depreciation, debt pressure would increase more and economy would face again decreasing growth in mid term or long term, as a result of high amount of money supply in the market, expectation on inflation rate and inflation rate might reach the too high rate. So bank of Mongolia decided to change monetary policy and increased policy interest rate up till 15% starting from August 2016. As policy interest rate increases, consumption decreases. Through decreasing consumption, inflation rate becomes controllable which will help to stabilize exchange rate. But as commercial banks’ movement mainly define the climate of our financial market, as policy interest rate increases, cost of financing for commercial increases and as a result of it, this restricts money supply in the market. For risky businesses which wants financing, through high risk premium and high policy interest rate, their NPL owing to the bank might increase and finally get crowded out from the market. This situation indirectly decreases export amount and as inflow of foreign currency decreases, demand for MNT decreases and MNT depreciates.  
1.                   Policy interest rate- As interest rate increases, currency of the country appreciates. But this definite correlation will work out if only central bank announces about the policy interest rate well in advance through mass media and create expectation. Investors and depositors want a high return and developing countries like Mongolia can’t stabilize the exchange rate only with foreign trade transactions that are foreign currency’s inflow and outflow since it isn’t enough. Alternative method to supply the foreign currency inflow could be increasing policy interest rate. In December, 2018, USA increased its policy interest rate from 2.25% till 2.5%. In international economy, this has created expectation that USA’s this movement would affect emerging markets’ foreign trade balance and investment inflow negatively. Align with this, Bank of Mongolia has made decision to increase the policy interest rate by 1% as protection against inflation and comparison with USA’s interest rate increase. But this can’t solely define the exchange rate when PPP, foreign currency resource of the BoM, foreign trade, investment and governmental budget have impact on it..
It is possible to say that there is positive correlation between foreign currency resource of Bank of Mongolia and exchange rate as long as there is regulation of Bank of Mongolia with help of foreign currency resource such as injection.
2.             Foreign trade -/X-M/ generally speaking, when export surpluses the import under condition of other aspects are constant, demand of MNT surpluses supply of MNT in the market and it will help MNT appreciate. 78.8% of the export products in 2015, 70.9% in 2016, 79.6% in 2017 and 94.9% in 2018 was mineral products and highest weigh in mineral products consist of copper concentrate, coal, processed and semi unprocessed gold. A country weighs highest as value in export is China.
These statistical information solely shows that USD/MNT depends on volume and price of mineral products exported to China, change in the prices of gold, copper and coal, trade quotas and taxes of the China. 66.8% of imported products account for mineral products / diesel fuel, gasoline / cars, machinery, equipment and appliances, and 90-100% of these products are imported from China and Russia.
GDP has recovered from the fourth quarter of 2016, reaching 5.3 percent in 2017, and GDP growth of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2018. As the economy rebounds, both exports and imports are showing signs of rising. However, as of November 2018, Mongolia's foreign trade balance showed a minus surplus of 1.1 billion MNT, falling by 672 million US dollars in comparison with same period a year ago. Exports in coal exports reached 40% depending on price and volume exports made which means by November 2018, export increased by 794.2 million USD in comparison with same period from a year ago. However, imports increased by $ 1.5 billion in November 2018 as compared to the same period of last year. The main reason for the growth of imports is the rise of the economic recovery, which is due to the growth of imports of machinery, equipment and imports, and imports of its spare parts. In other words, in November 2018, the US dollar outflow was higher than the inflow of US dollars due to higher import growth than export growth. / November 2017 USD / MNT -2448.86, in November 2018 USD / MNT- 2581.88 /
However, when the 2014-2016 exchange rate fluctuated, the appreciation of the togrog against the dollar was strong and the foreign investment and the government budget showed deficit. This shows the opposite result of the theory discussed above, which was directly linked to the foreign exchange intervention of the Bank of Mongolia/ Bank of Mongolia was injecting foreign currency to the market using their foreign currency resource/. In the third quarter of 2016, the Mongolian tugrik was weakening as the Bank of Mongolia reduced its intervention. /
Within the framework of the trade balance, Mongolia's major exporters and importers, China and Russia's US-based trade agreements, China's trade policy and the demand for coal, gold and copper concentrate, changes in these mineral prices, and fuel prices has a significant influence on our  foreign trade balance. This is also determinant factor for supply and demand for USD , and determines the exchange rate.
3. Balance of payments - / This includes  trade, service, capital flow and financial flow/ . If the sum of the current account, the capital account, and the financial account balance is negative, the demand for the dollar is higher than the supply, and in the domestic market,  dollar will appreciates and it weakens the tugrug. As of September 2018, balance of payments and capital balance accounted for $ 1.1 billion loss. The loss is in the US dollar. This shows an increase of $ 600.5 occurred in the balance compared to the same period of the previous year.
/ Y-I, the concept of X-M (Here is an example of the relationship between foreign direct investment and exchange rate). Foreign direct investment from the third quarter of 2016 rose by $ 323 million to $ 447 million by the fourth quarter of 2016, as well as by comparison with the previous year's foreign direct investment. Moreover, in 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2017, FDI increased with noticeable amount in comparison with same period from a year ago which effected 2016’s exchange rate that MNT has been depreciated continuously up till 2016 and first 6 months of 2017 shows appreciated MNT.
Ашигласан тоо мэдээллийн эх сурвалж:
Үндэсний статистикийн хорооны тоон мэдээлэл
Монголбанкны зарласан ханшийн сарын дундаж хөдөлгөөн



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